Category: Information

CDOT misses the lesson on open data transparency

Publishing the wrong measurement as a PDF isn’t transparency.

The Chicago Department of Transportation released the first progress report to its Chicago Forward Action Agenda in October, two and a half years after the plan – the first of its kind – was published. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time reading it and putting off a review. Why? It’s been a difficult to compare the original and update documents. The update is extremely light on specifics and details for the many goals in the Action Agenda, which should have organizational (like record keeping and efficiency improvements) and public impacts (like figuring out which intersections have the most crashes). I’ll publish my in-depth review this week.

Aside from missing specifics and details, the update presents information differently and is missing status updates for the three to five “performance measures” in each chapter. It was difficult to understand CDOT’s reporter progress without holding the original and update side-by-side. I think listing the original action item, the progress symbol, and then a status update would have been an easier way to read the document.

The update measures some action items differently than originally called for, and the way pothole repair was presented, a problem for people bicycling and driving, caught my analytical eye.

CDOT states a pothole-filling performance measure of the percentage, which it desires to be increased, “patched or fixed within 72 hours of being reported” but the average, according to the website Chicago Potholes, which tracks the city’s open data, is 101 days*. The update doesn’t necessarily explain why, writing “the 72 hour goal for filling potholes is not always feasible due to asphalt plant schedules” and nothing related to the performance measure.

As originally written, the only way to note the performance would be to list the percentage of potholes filled within the goal time, at the beginning and in the update. This performance measure has a complementary action item – an online dashboard – which could have provided the answer, but didn’t.

CDOT published that dashboard this summer as a series of six PDF files that update daily and you can hardly call it useful.

Publishing PDF files in the day and age of open government data – popular with President Obama and Mayor Rahm Emanuel – is unacceptable. Even if they are accessible – meaning you can copy/paste the text – they are poor outlets for data given the nationally-renowned civic innovation changes that Emanuel has succeeded in establishing.

There’s another problem: the dashboard file for pothole tracking doesn’t track the time it takes to close a pothole request, nor the number of pothole requests that are patched within 72 hours. It simply tells the number completed yesterday, the year to date, and the number of unpatched requests. (I’ve posted the pothole-tracking file to Scribd because the dashboard [PDF] doesn’t work in Safari; I also notified city staff to this problem which they acknowledged over three weeks ago.)

The “Chicago Works For You” website reports a different metric, that of the number of requests made each day, distributed by ward.

I discussed the proposed dashboard with former commissioner Gabe Klein over two years ago. He said he wanted to create a dashboard of projects “we’re working on that’s updated once a week.” Given Klein’s high professional accessibility to myself, John Greenfield and other reporters, I’ll give him and CDOT a pass for not doing this. But Klein also said, “I’m really big on transparency and good communication. When I left [Washington,] D.C. our [Freedom of Information Act Requests] were dramatically lowered.”

I’ll consider the pothole performance measure and action item “in need of major progress.”

* For stats geeks, the median is 86 and standard deviation is ±84.

Why do speeding crashes in Chicago lead to worse injuries?

Don’t git behind me. Photo by Richard Masoner. 

A discussion about Chicagoans’ proclivity for tailgating (on a post about speed cameras) prompted me to look at the prevalence of this in causing crashes. I looked at the three-year period of 2010-2012 first, mainly so the numbers wouldn’t be so large, and left this information in a comment. But considering the prerequisites* for a crash to be reported in this dataset, and my desire to compare two multi-year periods, I switched my analysis to the single four-year period 2009-2012.

2009-2012

Total crashes: 318,193. Total fatalities: 554 people.

Tailgating crashes

62,080 crashes, 19.53% of all crash types

Tailgating crashes, injuries breakdown:

  • Killed: .0012 (this represents the number of deaths per crash). 75 people died in these crashes, representing 13.54% of all deaths.
  • Incapacitating injuries: 8.53% (the average distribution of people’s injuries in all tailgating crashes)
  • Non-Incapacitating: 46.32%
  • Possible injury: 45.15%

The share of all crash types that are tailgating has increased steadily from 18.11% in 2009 to 20.79% in 2012.

Speeding crashes

10,339 crashes, 3.24% of all crash types

Speeding injuries:

  • Killed: .0118 (this represents the number of deaths per crash). 122 people died in these crashes, representing 22.02% of all deaths.
  • Incapacitating injuries: 15.55% (the average distribution of people’s injuries in all speeding crashes)
  • Non-Incapacitating: 51.95%
  • Possible injury: 32.50%

The share of all crash types that are tailgating has decreased slightly from 3.72% in 2009 to 3.02% in 2012. While speeding leads to fewer crashes, it leads to a greater incidence of death and serious injury. The probability of a speeding crash leading to at least one death seems to stay steady through the period while the probability of seeing a person with an incapacitating injury versus a different kind of injury varies more, but not so much in a range that overlaps the rates for tailgating crashes.

A future comparison at injuries should look at the top crash causes for death and serious injury.

N/A and Unable to determine crashes

237,729 crashes, 74.71% of all crash types

N/A and unable to determine injuries:

  • Killed: .0013 (this represents the number of deaths per crash). 305 people died in these crashes, representing 55.05% of all deaths.
  • Incapacitating injuries: 9.38% (the average distribution of people’s injuries in all N/A crashes)
  • Non-Incapacitating: 48.26%
  • Possible injury: 42.35%

Notes

Updated December 4, 2013

I updated the wording on how to interpret these numbers. For example, previously for “killed” there was a percentage saying this number represented the amount of crashes that had at least one death. This wasn’t accurate: the same number represents a rate of deaths per crash of that type. Injury percentages represent the distribution of injury types experienced by all the people injured in crashes of that type.

Reliability

Analyzing crash causes is not very reliable as 45.60% of the reported crashes in 2012 had “N/A” or “unable to determine” listed as the primary cause! The third and fourth most frequently ascribed causes were the two tailgating codes (described below). There are some crashes that had the one of these two causes in the secondary cause field but I haven’t calculated that.

Cause code descriptions

Each crash has two cause codes. For tailgating crashes I searched for reports where “failing to reduce speed to avoid crash” or “following too closely” in either the primary or secondary cause field (it’s possible that a report had both of these causes ascribed). For speeding crashes I searched for “speed excessive for conditions” or “exceeding speed limit” in either the primary or secondary cause fields.

Prerequisites

This data excludes crashes where there was no injury or no property damage greater than $500 (2005 to 2008) and $1,500 (2009 to 2012). You cannot compare the two datasets when you want to see a share of all crashes because the number of “all crashes” will be underreported in the second dataset.

Queries

These are some of the MySQL queries I used to get the data out of my own crash database (I’m figuring out ways to make it public, using a shared login). “Cause 1 code” indicates the primary cause of the crash according to the police officer’s judgement. “Cause 2 code” indicates the secondary cause of the crash according to the police officer’s judgement.

1. Crash cause reliability: SELECt count(casenumber), sum(`Total killed`), `Cause2`, `Cause 2 code` FROM `CrashExtract_Chicago` WHERE year = 12 GROUP BY `Cause 2 code`  ORDER BY cast(`Cause 2 code` as signed)

2. Speeding crashes: SELECT count(casenumber), sum(`Total killed`), sum(`totalInjuries`), sum(`A injuries`), sum(`B injuries`), sum(`C injuries`) FROM `CrashExtract_Chicago` WHERE (`Cause 1 code` = 1 OR `Cause 1 code` = 27 OR `Cause 2 code` = 1 or `Cause 2 code` = 27) AND year > 8

3. Tailgating crashes: SELECT count(casenumber), sum(`Total killed`), sum(`totalInjuries`), sum(`A injuries`), sum(`B injuries`), sum(`C injuries`) FROM `CrashExtract_Chicago` WHERE (`Cause 1 code` = 3 OR `Cause 1 code` = 28 OR `Cause 2 code` = 3 or `Cause 2 code` = 28) AND year > 8

4. N/A and Unable to determine crashes: SELECT count(casenumber), sum(`Total killed`), sum(`totalInjuries`), sum(`A injuries`), sum(`B injuries`), sum(`C injuries`) FROM `CrashExtract_Chicago` WHERE (`Cause 1 code` = 18 OR `Cause 1 code` = 99) AND year > 8

When did everyone start caring about bicyclists dying?

A Plague of Cyclists appear to run cars off the road on The Weekly Standard’s cover.

A couple weeks ago a bunch of journalists from major international news outlets were having drinks somewhere (maybe The Billy Goat Tavern in Chicago’s basement) and wrote the same story.

Actually, they didn’t, but it’s surprisingly weird how close they were.

On Sunday the New York Times published “Is It O.K. To Kill Cyclists?”. Next, on Monday, Crain’s Chicago Business published “Why everyone hates bicyclists—and why they hate everyone back”.

Daniel Duane’s op-ed in NYT garnered a lot of response (7 of them are linked here, which doesn’t include Crain’s or The Weekly Standard). The Economist responded to the NYT article with “Cycling v cars: The American right-of-way” saying we should adopt laws like the Netherlands and gave several examples there of who’s liable for a crash between a car and bike (nearly always the driver). Bike Snob wrote the response I most agree with. Karen Altes of Tiny Fix Bike Gang got pissedTwin City Sidewalks (in Minneapolis/St. Paul) wrote that “bicyclists need to stop blaming themselves for dangerous roads”, referring to the bicyclist in question, Daniel Duane, the NYT op-ed contributor.

Tanya Snyder, writing for one of my employer’s sister blogs Streetsblog Capitol Hill, headlined her own roundup post, “The Times Blows a Chance to Tackle America’s Broken Traffic Justice System”. Andrew Smith at Seattle Transit Blog said that he gave up cycling to work in the first week he tried it. Brian McEntee wrote on his blog Tales from the Sharrows about two scenarios to consider about “following laws” (which isn’t what cyclists or drivers should be aiming for).

David Alpert, who runs a Streetsblog-like blog called Greater Greater Washington, said that it’s not okay to kill cyclists, “but if a spate of other op-eds are any indication, it’s sure okay to hate them and the facilities they ask for in a quest for safety”. BikeBlogNYC later published myriad examples of how streets continue killing everyone who’s not driving a car.

Then The Weekly Standard published something very similar to Duane’s piece. I don’t know when – it’s in the issue marked for November 18, but I believe it went up Monday, with a sweet cover. It went by two names. On the cover, “A Plague of Bicyclists” (by Christopher Caldwell) and on the site, “Drivers Get Rolled: Bicyclists are making unreasonable claims to the road—and winning”.

Most of the proceeding discussions revolve around “who’s right”. And the Economist skirts discussing the answer and instead just gives the answer: the bicyclist, because they’re the ones who die.

When you are driving in the Netherlands, you have to be more careful than you would when driving in America. Does this result in rampant injustice to drivers when accidents occur? No. It results in far fewer accidents. As the ANWB [Royal Dutch Touring Club, like the AAA] says, some drivers may think the liability treatment gives cyclists “a blank check to ignore the rules. But a cyclist is not going to deliberately ride through a red light thinking: ‘I won’t have to pay the damages anyway.’ He is more likely to be influenced by the risk that he will land in the hospital.”

I like what Evan Jenkins, a sometimes urbanist blogger studying mathematics at University of Chicago, wrote on his Twitter timeline:

That’s encouraging. He linked to several of his past articles about cyclist murder.

 

What’s also funny about this weekend’s bike-journo-fest is that Whet Moser, writing for Chicago Magazine, interviewed me two weeks ago about bike infrastructure and penned this uncomplicated, unruffled but comprehensive article saying “drivers and cyclists don’t have to be angry and fearful…with smart planning, a city can design safe roads for all.”

Chicago has started on that path. You know what might influence more change than any bike lane built? Speed cameras. And no, I won’t let them be removed.

Updated multiple times to add more responses to Duane’s op-ed. 

Stop locking your bike at the Clybourn Metra station overnight

Existing bike parking at the Clybourn Metra station

This is a resolution.

WHEREAS, I love GIS.

WHEREAS, I was reading this blog post on the Azavea company blog about bike theft prediction and trends in Philadelphia.

WHEREAS, I analyzed bike theft location in Chicago in 2012 and the Clybourn Metra station emerged as the most frequent Metra theft location.

WHEREAS, I searched the Chicago Stolen Bike Registry for “clybourn” and several thefts have been reported to the registry in 2013.

WHEREAS, I believe the Chicago Police Department still doesn’t allow searching of their database for bike thefts thus leaving the CSBR as the premier source of data.

WHEREAS, I am watching this show called The Bletchley Circle wherein a group of four fictional women who cracked codes in World War II are solving a murder mystery in 1950s London.

BE IT RESOLVED that you should not leave your bicycle parked at the Clybourn Metra station overnight as it is a terrible place to leave a bicycle parked. Why? No one is around most of the time to socially secure your bicycle.

New bike parking at the Clybourn Metra station

This is a great place to get your bike stolen. In the dark. Overnight. With no one around to see it happen.